Effects of climate change on the distribution of indigenous species in oceanic islands (Azores)

Oceanic islands host a high proportion of the world’s endemic species. Many such species are at risk of extinction owing to habitat degradation and loss, biological invasions and other threats, but little is known about the effects of climate change on island native biodiversity. The Azorean archipelago provides a unique opportunity to study species-climatechange relationships. We used ensemble forecasting to evaluate the current and future distribution of well-studied endemic and native bryophytes (19 species), endemic vascular plants (59 species) and endemic arthropods (128 species), for two of the largest Azorean Islands, Terceira and São Miguel. Using a Regional Climate Model (CIELO), and assuming the Climatic Change (2016) 138:603–615 DOI 10.1007/s10584-016-1754-6 Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1754-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Maria Teresa Ferreira [email protected] 1 CE3C – Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes/Azorean Biodiversity Group and Universidade dos Açores Departamento de Ciências Agrárias, 9700-042 Angra do Heroísmo, Açores, Portugal 2 Azorean Biodiversity Group (CITA-A) and Portuguese Platform for Enhancing Ecological Research & Sustainability (PEERS), Angra do Heroísmo, Açores, Portugal 3 Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland 4 Center of Climate, Departamento de Ciências Agrárias, Meteorology and Global Change of the University of the Azores (CCMMGCITA-A), Universidade dos Açores, 9700-042 Angra do Heroísmo, Portugal 5 Department of Biogeography and Global Change, National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC, Calle José Gutiérrez Abascal, 2, 28006 Madrid, Spain 6 InBIO/CIBIO, University of Évora, Largo dos Colegiais, 7000 Évora, Portugal 7 Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, DK-2100, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark extreme scenario RCP8.5, we examined changes in the potential distributions of the species and possible loss of climate space for them. Models projected that 23 species (11 %) could lose all adequate climate on either one or both islands. Five additional species were projected to lose ≥90 % of climate space. In total, 90 % of the species were projected to lose climate space: 79 % of bryophytes, 93 % of vascular plants and 91 % of arthropods. We also found for vascular plants and arthropods a tendency for upward shift in altitude in their suitable climate space, while for bryophytes the shift was towards the coastal areas. Our results have profound implications for future conservation priorities on islands, such as for the redrawing of conservation borders of current protected areas.